Devon votes in County Council elections today

Candidates and party activists across the county - excluding the two unitary authorities of Plymouth and Torbay who do not have elections - have been spending the last few days and hours anxiously stuffing leaflets through letterboxes and knocking on doors in final campaigning for today's Devon County Council elections.

The County Council seats are elected every four years and last fought in 2009.

Devon County Council is currently controlled by the Conservatives under leader Councillor John Hart. The Liberal Democrats have been their traditional opposition across the region. Both may be looking over their shoulders at UKIP, who are fielding candidates in most seats and will be looking to change the status quo.

Labour hold just six seats on the County, one courtesy of a mid-term defection from the Greens in Totnes Rural and one from a defection from the Lib Dems in Exwick/St Thomas. Other than Totnes, all their seats are in Exeter, where they proved to have a strong electoral machine having taken overall control of the city council last year by winning seats in wards where they had not previously been strong. However they too will be mindful of the UKIP effect.

The Greens will be looking to take back their Totnes Rural seat and even pick up one or two more.

A number of candidates for smaller parties and independents are also standing around Devon.

In Exeter the picture is somewhat different with Labour currently the strongest party. The two Lib Dem held seats, Alphington & Cowick and St Davids & St James, are perhaps the key battlegrounds and ones to watch.

Here's a ward by ward guide to Exeter's Devon County Council seats.

Alphington/Cowick

Edge of the city Alphington has been a Lib Dem stronghold but their grip on it has been severely loosened. They retain one city seat, having lost twice to Labour in two years. Their sitting county councillor for the dual Alphington & Cowick ward, Vanessa Newcombe, will know she faces a battle having been defeated in Alphington last year where she was a sitting city councillor.

Labour were a distant third four years ago which ought to put it plumb on the Tories' radar, but Labour's recent city victories in Alphington and their core support in Cowick (where they hold both city seats) suggest their candidate, Roy Hill, may feel confident of leapfrogging both Tories and Lib Dems from a low 2009 base. This despite Tory candidate, Louis Ten-Holter appearing to have landed one of the Tories more achievable seat gains, at least on paper. There may be significant pockets of support for both UKIP (Dutch Dudgeon) and the Greens (Diana Moore) to make it a rather more unpredictable contest.

Prediction: Labour gain from Lib Dems

Duryard/Pennsylvania

Traditionally a battle between Conservatives and Lib Dems, this seat might normally be expected to provide one of the election's most intriguing contests.

Conservative Percy Prowse is defending a majority of 98 which given the Lib Dems opinion poll woes ought to see him home once again. Kevin Chun (Lib Dem) will hope to draw on some tactical votes but might Labour mount a challenge of their own? They have some natural support in Pennsylvania, the only woman candidate on the slate (Hannah Packham) and the wind in their sails city-wide, but they were a poor third four years ago. It looks a stretch too far for them. UKIP's Colin Stewart might increase his party's vote and steal some from others - especially the Tories - which could yet affect the result. The Greens (Chris Barnett) might drain some votes from Labour and the Lib Dems.

Prediction: Conservative hold

Exwick/St Thomas

Rob Hannaford's large 941 majority ought to be impregnable but he won that as a Lib Dem before defecting to Labour, who were miles behind in second place four years ago. He has since retained his St Thomas city seat for Labour (also won as a Lib Dem) and Labour look increasingly solid west of the Exe. But given her party's 2009 majority, the Lib Dem candidate Sally Wilcox cannot be written off.

Third last time, the Conservatives (Lizzie Roberts) may not be thinking much beyond stealing ahead of the Lib Dems into second place. Respectable polls for UKIP and the Greens last time must give their candidates (Brian Jeffery and Audaye Elesedy respectively) hope of chipping away at the big parties, Labour included. An independent, Lee Gillett is also standing.

Prediction: Labour hold (won by a Lib Dem in 2009 who subsequently defected to Labour).

Heavitree/Whipton Barton

Labour held the seat with a majority of 155 in 2009. Sitting councillor Olwen Foggin is standing again and must be a strong favourite to retain the seat. If the Tories could not win it in tough times for Labour nationally then they may struggle to do so now. Peter Holland is the Conservative candidate.

The Lib Dems were a somewhat distant fourth behind the old Liberal Party last time. There is no Liberal Party candidate this time, but any benefit from this could go to Labour as well as to Lib Dem candidate Ditch Townsend. UKIP (Richard Timmis) could provide a more determined threat this time and Rouben Freeman will hope to increase the share of the Green vote.

Prediction: Labour hold

Newtown/Polsloe

Labour's majority over the Conservatives last time was 182 and it would be a major shock if they were not to hold it this time. Richard Westlake is re-standing for Labour, present Lord Mayor of Exeter, Rob Newby his Tory challenger. The Tories still hold one of the Polsloe city seats so retain support in the area.

Alan Williamson is standing for the Liberal Democrats and Tom Milburn for the Greens. UKIP (Jacqueline Holdstock) seems once again to be the unknown factor and Carlus Hudson might pick off a few Labour votes standing under the Trade Unionists & Socialists Against Cuts banner.

Prediction: Labour hold

Pinhoe/Mincinglake

Labour's local matriach and former County group leader Saxon Spence is standing down, replaced as candidate by Emma Morse the daughter of another formidable local Labour legend, Chester Long. It was close last time, 29 votes the margin of victory. The Conservatives will take heart from that but know the tide may have turned against them in this patch for now, with Labour solid in Mincinglake and taking a Tory city council seat in Pinhoe last year.

Third last time, this could be one of UKIP's target seats but Keith Crawford may be aiming to chip away at the Tory vote, rather than for an unlikely victory. John Ashton stands for the Lib Dems and Isaac Price-Sosner for the Greens.

Prediction: Labour hold

Priory/St Leonards

A close contest four years ago when Jill Owen narrowly avoided defeat to the Tories at a low point in popularity for the then Labour government nationally. Mrs Owen is standing in her home patch of St Davids/St James this time and Andy Hannan is defending the seat for Labour.

The ward stretches over a large area encompassing council estates, new builds, traditional terraced houses, riverside semis and the well-to-do areas of St Leonards 'village'. In the City Council, Priory is solid Labour while St Leonards has remained loyally Tory despite slight wobbles in the past two city elections which have seen the gap over Labour narrow.

Labour will be confident of boosting their majority in the county seat. It appears a straight two-way battle though the UKIP candidate (Jacalyn Warwick), the British National Party candidate (Christoper Stone) and Nicola Guagliardo for the local Your Decision To Keep Lights On party, could all steal votes from the big two. Joel Mason stands for the Lib Dems and Alison Harcourt for the Greens.

Prediction: Labour hold

St Davids/St James

This has been Liberal Democrat territory for years, but sitting councillor Phil Brock may be concerned that last year's surprise city council defeat in St Davids by Labour's Sarah Laws together with Keith Owen's parallel capture of St James, provide Labour with the kind of platform to overturn his 567 majority. However Labour would have to rise from fourth place where they finished in 2009, behind both the Conservatives and Greens. Jill Owen stands for Labour, James Roberts for the Conservatives.

Ralph Gay for UKIP might add another layer of complexity to this diverse marginal. Luke Pilling stands for Trade Unionists & Socialists Against Cuts and if it were to be close, might he cost Labour crucial votes?

The Greens' Andrew Bell finished third in St Davids in the city elections last year and is standing again for the twin wards. He may have a chance of exploiting a tight multi-party tussle and sneaking past on the inside.

Prediction: Labour gain from Lib Dems

St Loyes/Topsham

A safe seat for the Tories (the safest among the Exeter wards with a majority of 1,086) in the past though UKIP provide a wild card given they did not field a candidate last time round. Andrew Leadbetter stands once again for the Tories, Valerie Angus for UKIP, Christine Vince for the Lib Dems (who were second four years ago), Eliot Wright for Labour (fourth last time) and Mark Cox for the Greens.

Prediction: Conservative hold

This is an independent analysis posted on The Exeter Daily.

For a full list of candidates across all the Devon County Council seats, click here.