Three-year low for SW jobs optimism
In the first employment survey to be published since the General Election, employers in the South West are becoming more cautious about hiring, according to ManpowerGroup, the world’s workforce experts. With an Outlook of +1%, confidence has taken a dip since last quarter’s +4% figure.
The ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey is based on responses from 2,109 UK employers. It asks whether employers intend to hire additional workers or reduce the size of their workforce in the coming quarter. It is the most comprehensive, forward-looking employment survey of its kind and is used as a key economic statistic by both the Bank of England and the UK government.
Simon Edwards, Operations Director at Manpower, said: “We are seeing strong demand for candidates in the logistics industry, despite the region’s dip in optimism. This is particularly good news for drivers in Exeter and warehousing and production operatives in Plymouth. However, there remains a critical shortage in heavy goods vehicle drivers. We are seeing that candidates increasingly seek long-term job security with a stable income and schedule. They are less willing to take up ad hoc assignments.”
“Employers in the South West are also challenged because the talent pool for some opportunities is often restricted to local areas. This is because candidates are reluctant to commute on the region’s congested main roads. Employers that can offer more flexible working patterns are better positioned to mitigate these challenges.”
Nationally, companies are demonstrating cautious optimism with an Outlook of +5%, despite a triple whammy of uncertainty over the last few months - a snap election, the triggering of Article 50, and weak economic data for the first half of 2017. Whilst on first glance the election uncertainty might appear unhelpful to employers, ManpowerGroup believes that the shock result could offer hope for businesses who had feared the impact of a hard Brexit on hiring.
James Hick, ManpowerGroup Solutions Managing Director: “You might have expected hiring confidence to have taken a real hit, but employers have been standing firm. However, unquestionably they feared the outcome of a hard Brexit on the jobs market. The election result throws into question the Conservative commitment to slash immigration to the “tens of thousands” and double the levy on non-EU workers to £2,000. The simple truth is that some sectors will stall without skilled workers from overseas, which could result in the UK economy entering a tailspin.”
Hick continues: “People might be surprised to learn that in the last year 80,000 Bulgarians and Romanians entered the UK workforce, while the size of the UK-born workforce did not increase at all – demonstrating just how accustomed we have become to a steady stream of labour from overseas. Slamming the door shut will leave us seriously exposed.”
It is a diverse picture across the regions this quarter. Yorkshire and Humber is top of the regional charts on +11%, its highest level since 2014. London is also riding high, with a five point jump this quarter, to +8%. It’s a mixed picture in the west: the West Midlands is up four points to +9%. But the North West is also down three points to +3%. In the east of the country it’s also a pretty uneven picture: the North East and East of England are both in line with the national average (+5%) whereas the South East is up five points to +9%, but the East Midlands has slipped to +3%, its least optimistic outlook in over six years. Northern Ireland (+4%) and Scotland (+2%) are both below the national average and Wales is at the bottom of the regional table with an Outlook of 0%, the lowest level for the country since 2014.
