Chancellor warns of impact of leaving EU on South West

A VOTE to leave the EU would cause a 'profound economic shock' that would cost tens of thousands of jobs, and risk living standards and house prices in the South West, Chancellor George Osborne will warn today. (TUES)

On a visit to Stroud, the Chancellor will say that the UK has a bright future inside a reformed EU, with opportunities to build on the economic recovery and rising levels of employment, with over 44,600 jobs expected to be created in the South West by 2020 if we remain in the EU. 

By contrast, he will unveil new analysis suggesting a Leave vote on June 23rd would cause unemployment in the South West to rise by around 45,000 over two years, while youth unemployment would rise by 6,000.

The impact of the shock from leaving the EU and the free trade single market, the largest in the world, could be equivalent to a £4.4 billion reduction to the size of the South West economy by 2018, he will say.

It would mean house prices in the South West are £30,000 lower by 2018 than if the UK votes to Remain, assuming that prices would otherwise have grown in line with the Office for Budget Responsibility's forecasts.

If we remain in the EU the average wage in the South West will rise by £4,500, from £26,000 to £30,500, but if we leave wages will be 2.8% lower in real terms.

The South West exported 59 per cent of its total goods exports to the EU and 250,000 jobs are in the region are linked to our exports in Europe. In the last 5 years the South West has benefited from 129 investment projects from the EU, creating or protecting 13,000 jobs.

The Chancellor will say: “As we continue to grow our economy the South West has a bright future with 44,600 jobs expected to be created if we remain in the EU. The South West benefits from trade exports to the EU, and inbound tourism and investment from the EU, but all of that would be at risk if we vote to leave causing unemployment in the South West to rise by around 45,000 over two years.

“Every credible independent voice agrees that if the UK votes to leave the EU there would be a profound economic shock that would be felt around the SouthWest and threaten jobs, livelihoods and living standards in the region. Don't let's risk it. I urge everyone to vote to remain in the EU on 23 June.”