New Government mortgage schemes will increase property prices

Exeter’s most entrepreneurial independent mortgage and insurance services firm, Cooper Associates, is delivering its Spring house price forecast, with warnings that the Government’s latest schemes are fraught with dangers.

Cooper Associates predicts the housing market in the South West will not get much easier in 2013 and consumer confidence is likely to remain subdued.

Samantha Cooper, Managing Director, comments, “We believe the long-term recovery of the housing market will not be achieved by the Chancellor’s recent announcement of the ‘Help to Buy’ scheme. It will potentially lead to more homeowners defaulting on their mortgages, leaving tax payers to foot the bill once interest rates rise. We are also expecting to see the scheme lead to an overall increase in house prices.

“The danger is that home-buyers - those who lenders will not consider due to having an insufficient deposit - will be tempted by the offer of a Government loan and mortgage guarantees. They will commit themselves to mortgages, which they may not be able to afford when interest rates rise – which will happen, because we cannot sustain the current, historically low borrowing rate forever.

“The question should be asked whether the Government should be underwriting such loans at all. Most mortgage guarantees are underwritten commercially with the premium being paid by the borrower. In the event of repossession under this scheme, the premium will be paid for by the taxpayer.”

When interest rates rise, the Government will lose money from those who cannot fulfil their repayments and the tax payer will suffer in an attempt to recover Government losses. A similar situation in the US in 2008 cost the American tax payer the equivalent of £125billion to buy back sub-prime mortgages from the banks.

Focusing on the market prospects for the remainder of 2013 - many market operators are billing it an excellent year to buy property, due to the expected rise in house price values, once the ‘Help to Buy’ scheme starts in 2014. House price increases will be imminent unless the government tackle the real issue of a lack of housing. Significantly, the scheme has not yet dealt with the issue of homeowners buying second properties under the scheme, a move that will only drive first time buyers further out of the market.

Samantha concludes, “The Government’s current ‘Funding for Lending’ scheme will keep mortgage interest rates low, however, overall credit conditions are unlikely to improve significantly in 2013, as consumer confidence is still subdued and the ratio of house prices to disposable incomes remains at an all time high. These factors suggest current property owners are unlikely to risk moving and taking on larger debts. In addition, the situation for first time buyers will remain consistent, so it is unlikely there will be any immediate recovery in the housing market this year.”

Your home may be repossessed if you do not keep up repayments on your mortgage.

Cooper Associates specialise in providing independent mortgage advice and independent insurance advice to both individuals and companies. For more information, please call 01823 273880 or email info@cooperassociatesltd.com.